Where Does Exactly-Once Live? Model, Harness, and Tool-Contract Effects on Duplicate Side Effects in LLM Agents
When a tool call that charges a card or sends a mail times out, the agent cannot tell whether the write landed: retry and it may happen twice, give up and required work is skipped. A sandbox of six services with twelve realistic fault modes ran 25,930 episodes across nine models, three production agent harnesses and two tool-contract variants, and the answer splits by fault. Where an immediate read-back can reveal what happened the model decides, and frontier models told to act exactly once almost never duplicate (0.5%); where it cannot — the request is still in flight, or the transport delivered it twice — the same models duplicate in 56% and 74% of episodes and the tool contract explains 81% of the variance. Waiting does not close that gap, since even an hour of waiting per episode loses to simply accepting an idempotency key on every write, which takes duplicates from 28% to 4%; and the reason to care more than the numbers suggest is that agents reported the task complete in 90% of the episodes in which they had duplicated an effect.